SETI Researcher Predicts Success Within 20 Years

According to New Scientist story reported on EurekAlert, Seth Shostak of the SETI Institute predicts we will know within 20 years if there is intelligent life out there in the Milky Way.  He plugged his numbers into the Drake Equation and estimated between 10,000 and a million radio transmitters spreading messages across the galaxy.  He bases his two-decade prediction on that number and the rapid improvement of computer search technology.  A member of the SETI League criticizes the estimate because “the ‘other end’ of the communications link is completely out of our hands.  It would be nice to think we know something about the existence, distribution, technology and motivation of our potential communications partners in space, but in fact, we don’t.”  Shostak defended his prediction in spite of the “myriad uncertainties” surrounding it, because “I have made this prediction using the assumptions adopted by the SETI research community itself.”

No inbreeding of thought there, huh?  How about using the assumptions of the ID community?  Speculation is fun but impractical.  He knows few will check back in 2024 to see if he was right, so it serves to get notoriety in the news and maybe additional public support (or funding).
    Seth Shostak appears briefly in the new film about to be released, The Privileged Planet.  He should watch it.