Earth Balances Its Climate

Quantitative shifts in global biomass
reveal surprising ecological balances
that challenge foundational assumptions
in climate science and evolutionary theory

Planetary Shifts and Global Photosynthesis
Challenges Climate Models and Darwinian Narratives 

by Sarah Buckland-Reynolds, PhD

Recent estimates comparing the photosynthetic activity between land and oceanic ecosystems spanning nearly two decades (2003-2021) has revealed that the earth’s ecosystem may be more ‘resilient’ to warming than previously projected. In an insightful article published in Nature Climate Change (August 2025), researchers Zhang et al found empirical evidence of an oft-downplayed beneficial implication of accelerated warming: The expansion of arable land in high latitude regions.

This observed increase in plant energy production in these terrestrial environments serve as carbon sinks to absorb CO₂ greenhouse gases, thereby contributing to balancing global temperatures. This “hidden” mechanism (in the words of the Science Daily commentary), not only challenges the blind spots of conventional analyses, but also opens a window to critically examine the limitations and philosophical underpinnings behind current scientific models. 

A World in Flux: Evidence of Built-In Balance and Paradoxes for Evolution 

Zhang et al’s approach to compare both terrestrial and marine Net Primary Production (NPP) in a single study enabled valuable insights on energy interactions in this coupled system. Many previous studies overlooked the synergy due to focusing on one aspect of the system. The new study found that warming did not decrease NPP overall, but that over the two decades under consideration, NPP increased by 0.1 billion metric tons of carbon per year. Terrestrial ecosystems expanded significantly (0.2 billion metric tons), particularly in temperate regions away from the tropics. However, phytoplankton productivity declined by 0.1 billion metric tons, especially in the tropics. 

From an evolutionary standpoint, this data presents a paradox. Evolutionary theory posits that life adapts gradually and optimally to environmental pressures. Yet, this data suggests that land plants continue to thrive under ‘rapid’ shifts in climate. Marine algae, by contrast, evolutionary models posit to be among the most ancient and ‘adaptable’ organisms. The observations stand in sharp contrast to the simplistic evolutionary narrative. If organisms have truly adapted after millions of years of natural selection, why do they falter under conditions they have presumably faced many times in the past? 

Dissecting Competing Philosophies 

The observed NPP observations resemble many other earth processes where spatially differential compensation enables equilibrium for improved habitability. One such example is the atmospheric and oceanic circulatory systems forming a ‘heat budget’, redistributing heat from areas where there is a surplus to regions where there is a deficit. Similarly, this observation of varying NPPs appears to illustrate another example of a designed compensatory mechanism within earth’s ecosystems, producing negative feedback that works to restore planetary equilibrium. 

While the authors acknowledge that this observation of systemic stabilization shows ‘resilience’, mainstream science tends to avoid questions of purpose. Nevertheless, an important question arises: why is photosynthesis enhanced in temperate and high-latitude regions — areas that have historically been far less productive than tropical zones?

A linear and ubiquitous increase in NPP all throughout the globe with rising temperatures may have been catastrophic, with eutrophication and alteration of geochemical cycles being two potential impacts in areas with already high NPP. However, observations show that with increased temperature, while the traditional region with rich biomass (the tropics) is experiencing a decline, avoiding potential adverse impacts for excessive NPP. The decline is balanced by the high latitude increase.

From a systems perspective, this could be interpreted as a redistribution of productivity toward areas that are newly capable of absorbing more carbon, thereby offsetting losses elsewhere. This not only reflects ecological efficiency but also suggests an underlying coherence built into the system.

Climate Models Under Scrutiny 

The findings also challenge traditional climate models in several ways: 

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  Underestimation of terrestrial carbon sinks: The authors acknowledged that prior research on net primary production (NPP) has often been constrained by univariate approaches: i.e., focusing on isolated domains such as land or ocean ecosystems without accounting for their dynamic interplay. As a result, climate projections derived from these siloed estimates risk overlooking compensatory mechanisms across coupled systems, potentially skewing outcomes toward undue pessimism. Notably, scientific commentaries have described the unexpected expansion of terrestrial carbon sinks as a “hidden climate battle,” revealing underappreciated forces that may be quietly stabilizing the planet’s carbon balance. 

• Underestimation of the impact of interannual variability as driving trends: The authors stated that: “A series of La Niña events was partly responsible for a trend reversal in ocean primary production that we identified after 2015. This finding highlights the ocean’s greater sensitivity to future climate variability.” This observation may suggest that short-term variability may be a significant driver in ecosystem changes, with contrasting levels of impact and even trend reversals. However, most global climate models (GCMs) and climate change projections rely heavily on multi-model means and long-term averages, which can obscure the impact of modes of interannual variability and extreme events. Although this limitation has been acknowledged in various works published in Nature, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science and Frontiers in Earth Science, adaptation and mitigation policy and practice heavily relies on simplified projections. 

• Overreliance on oceanic feedback: Many models assume marine ecosystems will buffer warming, yet this study shows they may be weakening. 

Designed for Balance 

This study provides another glimpse of the complexity of the world around us and may even suggest in-built-in mechanisms for ensuring equilibrium. This reminds us that nature should not be regarded as a closed system of random processes, but as a dynamic, responsive network. Just as resilience in engineering is the result of deliberate forethought, resilience in earth systems also signal design and foresight. 

While the popular narrative focuses on the adverse implications of a warming world, this study highlights that the earth possesses amazing signs of ingenuity enabling earth’s systems to rebound. Even in potentially devastating circumstances, fingerprints of design remain evident enabling life not only to adapt but endure in ways that defy reductionist expectations.

Even amid ecological stress and climatic uncertainty, the fingerprints of design remain evident, guiding life not merely to adapt, but to endure with purpose. As Scripture affirms, “The earth is the Lord’s, and the fullness thereof; the world, and they that dwell therein” (Psalm 24:1). This enduring truth invites us to see not randomness, but redemption woven into the fabric of creation itself.

Dr. Sarah Buckland-Reynolds is a Christian, Jamaican, Environmental Science researcher, and journal associate editor. She holds the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Geography from the University of the West Indies (UWI), Mona with high commendation, and a postgraduate specialization in Geomatics at the Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia. The quality of her research activity in Environmental Science has been recognized by various awards including the 2024 Editor’s Award from the American Meteorological Society for her reviewing service in the Weather, Climate and Society Journal, the 2023 L’Oreal/UNESCO Women in Science Caribbean Award, the 2023 ICETEX International Experts Exchange Award for study in Colombia. and with her PhD research in drought management also being shortlisted in the top 10 globally for the 2023 Allianz Climate Risk Award by Munich Re Insurance, Germany. Motivated by her faith in God and zeal to positively influence society, Dr. Buckland-Reynolds is also the founder and Principal Director of Chosen to G.L.O.W. Ministries, a Jamaican charitable organization which seeks to amplify the Christian voice in the public sphere and equip more youths to know how to defend their faith.