Climate Change: What the Science Says

The popular media is not
giving the whole story

 

Doomsday prophets rely on selective evidence about global warming. As is our custom, we go to the scientific journals to see what climate scientists are actually finding in real-world data. Often the findings contradict the scare tactics and propaganda in the mainstream media. The following are from university press releases and journal papers, all of which subscribe to the notion that humans are causing global warming. Watch for the surprises, though, concerning factors and unknowns that were not adequately considered in IPCC models.

Recent Science Papers and University Press Releases

Methane degradation without oxygen in lakes (13 Aug 2024, Max Planck Institute). “Methane-oxidizing bacteria could play a greater role than previously thought in preventing the release of climate-damaging methane from lakes, researchers from Bremen report.”

Not the day after tomorrow: Why we can’t predict the timing of climate tipping points (2 Aug 2024, Technical University of Munich via Phys.org). “Huge data gaps, especially for the longer past, and the methods used to fill these gaps can introduce errors in the statistics used to predict possible tipping times.”

“Our research is both a wake-up call and a cautionary tale,” says lead author Maya Ben-Yami. “There are things we still can’t predict, and we need to invest in better data and a more in-depth understanding of the systems in question. The stakes are too high to rely on shaky predictions.“

Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data (2 Aug 2024, Science Advances). This is the scientific paper for the press release above.

Here, we argue that the involved uncertainties are too high to robustly predict tipping times. We raise concerns regarding (i) the modeling assumptions underlying any extrapolation of historical results into the future, (ii) the representativeness of individual Earth system component time series, and (iii) the impact of uncertainties and preprocessing of used observational datasets, with focus on nonstationary observational coverage and gap filling. We explore these uncertainties in general and specifically for the example of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. We argue that even under the assumption that a given Earth system component has an approaching tipping point, the uncertainties are too large to reliably estimate tipping times by extrapolating historical information.

Amazon soil may store billions more tonnes of carbon than once thought (6 Aug 2024, New Scientist). James Dinneen reports, “Nutrient-rich “dark earth” soil may store an amount of carbon nearly equivalent to annual CO2 emissions in the US, a finding that suggests the Amazon sequesters far more carbon than previously known.”

Scientists Release New Research on Planted Mangroves’ Ability to Store Carbon (10 July 2024, Pacific Southwest Research Station). Mangroves are salt-tolerant trees that grow along coastlines and are important for preventing beach erosion. “Researchers have long known that mangroves are superstars of carbon absorption and storage. But until now, limited information existed on how long it took for carbon stored in planted mangroves to reach levels found in intact mangroves,” this press release says. Researchers found 70% of the initial carbon storage in just 20 years after new mangrove plantings.

New discovery reveals unexpected ocean algae help cool the Earth (11 June 2024, Univ. of East Anglia). Look at what simple algae do for the planet. A group of algae are big producers of a compound called dimethylsulfoniopropionate, or DMSP. This compound helps cool the planet.

Every year, billions of tonnes of DMSP are produced in the Earth’s oceans by marine microorganisms, helping them to survive by protecting against various stresses like changes in salinity, cold, high pressure, and oxidative stress.

Importantly, DMSP is the main source of a climate active gas called dimethylsulfide (DMS), which is known as the smell of the seaside.

This study suggests that DMSP production, and consequently DMS release, is likely higher than previously predicted and emphasises the key role of microbes in regulating global climate.

DMS also acts as a signalling molecule, guiding marine organisms to their food and deterring predators. When DMS is released into the atmosphere, DMS oxidation products help form clouds which reflect sunlight away from the Earth, effectively cooling the planet.

This natural process is essential for regulating the Earth’s climate and is also hugely important for the global sulfur cycle, representing the main route by which sulfur from the oceans is returned to land.

Climate models underestimate carbon cycling through plants (20 June 2024, Imperial College London). This study says that plants store more carbon than thought, but also release it more rapidly than thought. So what do scientists really know about carbon storage by plants?

Trees may not cool cities during heat waves as much as we thought (8 Aug 2024, Univ of New South Wales). Balancing the previous article, this one claims that trees are not effective coolers. This article claims with Tontological wording that another thing “we thought” was wrong. Either way, these two press releases indicate there is still a great deal of revision going on when scientists study the multitudinous factors affecting climate.

Tropical Atlantic mixing rewrites climate pattern rules (14 August 2024, Univ of Reading). Why didn’t climate scientists know this before? Here’s another “rewrite” of the rules:

Dr Balaji Senapati, lead author of the study at the University of Reading, said: “Until now, it was believed that changes in heat exchange between the ocean and atmosphere drove the climate patterns that affect weather in the various parts of the world. Our new study challenges that view, demonstrating that the depth of the ocean’s mixed layer is the key player in global climate variability.

“This research advances our understanding of Atlantic climate variability and highlights the complex relationship between the ocean and atmosphere in shaping our planet’s climate. Insights into natural climate variability become increasingly valuable for developing effective mitigation strategies as we face the challenges of climate change.”

California’s 2023 snow deluge: Contextualizing an extreme snow year against future climate change (29 April 2024, Marshall et al., PNAS). This paper says the “snow deluge” in California last winter that left record snowpack in the mountains was unexpected by climate scientists. This paper tries to “contextualize” the cold event with the climate consensus and conclude that global warming still happens, even as California shivered for months.

Changes to snow deluge, and discrepancies between snow deluge and median snow year changes, could impact water resources and ecosystems. Understanding these changes is therefore critical to appropriate climate adaptation.

Animals may help ecosystems store 3 times more carbon than we thought (19 April 2024, New Scientist). Here’s another factor in climate that differed from previous estimates by 300%. “Carbon storage calculations don’t always take into account the effects of animals – when they eat, defecate and die, they help store lots of carbon,” writes James Dinneen.

Rock weathering and climate: low-relief mountain ranges are largest carbon sinks (7 March 2024, Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich). Earth has a natural “thermostat” says this press release from Germany with another surprise for climate predictions:

For many hundreds of millions of years, the average temperature at the surface of the Earth has varied by not much more than 20° Celsius, facilitating life on our planet. To maintain such stable temperatures, Earth must have a ‘thermostat’ that regulates the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide over geological timescales, influencing global temperatures. The erosion and weathering of rocks are important parts of this ‘thermostat.’ A team led by LMU geologist Aaron Bufe and Niels Hovius from the German Research Centre for Geosciences has now modeled the influence of these processes on carbon in the atmosphere. Their surprising result: CO2 capture through weathering reactions is highest in low-relief mountain ranges with moderate erosion rates and not where erosion rates are fastest.

Source paper: Bufe et al., “CO2 drawdown from weathering is maximized at moderate erosion rates,” Science, 7 March 2024.

Understanding how soil traps carbon (5 Feb 2024, Northwestern University). Scientists still do not fully understand how soil traps carbon, even though it is the second largest carbon sink on earth, after the oceans. Feel the uncertainty in these quotes:

• Either the carbon gets trapped in the soil for days or even years, where it is effectively sequestered from immediately entering the atmosphere. Or it feeds microbes, which then respire carbon dioxide (CO2) into the ever-warming environment.
• Holding 2,500 billion tons of sequestered carbon, soil is one of Earth’s largest carbon sinks — second only to the ocean. But even though soil is all around us, researchers are only just beginning to understand how it locks in carbon to sequester it from the carbon cycle.
• Although the researchers initially thought the biomolecules would compete with one another to interact with the clay, they instead discovered unexpected behaviors. In a surprising twist, even positively charged biomolecules with flexible structures were inhibited from binding to the clay minerals.
• Next, Aristilde and her team plan to examine how biomolecules interact with minerals in soils found in warmer regions, including tropical climates. In another related project, they aim to explore how organic matter is transported in rivers and other water systems.

So what do climate scientists really know by actual field measurements? The scare rhetoric appears to outrun the evidence.

Source paper: Wang et al., “Electrostatic coupling and water bridging in adsorption hierarchy of biomolecules at water–clay interfaces,” PNAS, 8 Feb 2024.

More aerosol particles than thought are forming over Siberia (11 Jan 2024, University of Helsinki). Here is another factor previous models got wrong. Aerosol particles increase cloud cover, which reflects some of the solar energy hitting the earth. A heatwave in western Siberia provided an opportunity to test climate models.

Oceans can capture more carbon dioxide than previously thought (23 Dec 2023, Nature). This article from last December points to another revision of an important measurement that contradicts what was “previously thought.”

Standardizing sea level (1 Aug 2024, Book Review, Science). This book review of Sea Level: A History by Wilko Graf von Hardenberg shows that “sea level” is more a human convention than a scientific fact.

The technological narrative of global computation intertwined with local labor is mirrored by the geopolitical history of sea level as manifest in international data exchanges. Long-term global readings led to new ideas about sea level, von Hardenberg reveals, and there was a time when European researchers pursued a European standardized sea level. However, this effort eventually “petered out.” Instead, countries have created state-based sea level standards, and these means are used for very local needs, such as building bridges, coastal restoration, and estimating future sea level rise.

So what does it mean when climatologists warn that “sea level” is rising a few millimeters or inches? It can mean whatever they want it to mean.

The Panic Propaganda Marches On

Given the uncertainties listed above, and many others reported by us over the years from the journals (e.g., 11 Dec 2019), should the media continue to tell the public that we are doomed unless we take draconian measures to stop emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere? Even if one country does that, it is unlikely to do any good if China, Russia, and third-world countries continue their current practices.

Despair as the sea slowly swallows a Kenyan beauty spot (13 Aug 2024, BBC News). The UK is highly dogmatic about human-caused climate change. This story purports to tell a tragic tale of an island community threatened by sea level rise. Careful reading, however, shows that the erosion is due to harvesting of mangroves along the coast, which help protect the beaches.

In a Warming World, Climate Scientists Consider Category 6 Hurricanes (5 Feb 2024, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab). Call us when you see one.

Are we all doomed? How to cope with the daunting uncertainties of climate change (19 March 2024, Nature). This essay by Adam Sobel warns of all the things humans must do to stop climate change. Sobel admits there are many uncertainties, some even regarding the direction of change, but he thinks that the risk of warming is so bad we must be proactive to prevent it.

Climate change has slowed Earth’s rotation — and could affect how we keep time (9 March 2024, Nature). Quick! Adjust your watch by 3 leap-seconds! How anybody could know that melting polar ice has slowed the Earth’s rotation seems beyond the pale for empirical modesty, given other possible causes even if it is happening.

Should we fight climate change by re-engineering life itself?  (8 May 2024, The Conversation). Three “experts” in ‘what to do about climate change’ have gone off the deep end by proposing genetically modifying bacteria to capture carbon. Ever worry about unintended consequences?

Exploring the health impacts of climate change (5 Aug 2024, Univ. of Oxford). Get all worried. We’re going to die of heat exposure because of filling our gas tanks with gasoline. Has nobody ever suffered long hot summers in past decades and centuries?

‘Mercury bomb’ threatens millions as Arctic temperatures rise (15 Aug 2024, USC). We’re all going to die of mercury poisoning as permafrost melts from climate change.

Millions of years for plants to recover from global warming (8 Aug 2024, ETH Zurich). Feel really guilty, humans. Plants will need millions of Darwin Years to recover from what we have done to them. But will these experts be around millions of years in the future to say, “We told you so”?

Nudging the Unscared

Some science news sites are suggesting ways to stop climate deniers from spreading their disinformation. Climate change is a fact! Don’t keep quoting uncertainties from the journals!

Just Say “Climate Change” – not “Climate Emergency” (12 Aug 2024, USC Sol Price Center of Public Policy). Don’t try to influence public opinion with scare words like “emergency” these “experts” advise. Don’t even use “global warming” any more. Just keep saying “climate change.” That’ll do. It’s familiar and “more likely to resonate with people.”

If you want Americans to pay attention to climate change, just call it climate change  (12 Aug 2024, The Conversation). Here’s more of the same advice by some of the same experts. The elitist stench from these nudgers is palpable.

The fight against the climate crisis must not increase inequalities  (12 Aug 2024, The Conversation). You know what they mean. Six globalists harp on income inequality in their spiel.

Studies show that the people, communities and groups that are the most affected by climate change are generally those who have contributed the least to the current climate crisis. Marginalized people and communities — for example, those living in poverty, racialized persons or persons with disabilities — find they have to cope with interlinked compound crises that amplify their distress and precariousness.

Translation: Punish the American middle class by wealth redistribution (cf. Science 15 Aug 2024 on the “social cost of carbon” and the “distributional equity implications of regulations”—article mentions “distribution” 56 times). Isn’t it odd that the answer to every crisis presented by globalists is socialism and Marxism?

Donald Trump famously (or notoriously, depending on one’s party preference) promises to “Drill, baby, drill!” to achieve America’s dominance in energy, justifying it by arguing that countries are not going to stop using fossil fuels just because the globalists insist we do. Drilling and refining it in America will be much cleaner for the climate, he argues, than letting countries with much lower standards produce dirty oil. In his chat with Trump on X on August 13th, Elon Musk basically agreed with the point, even though Musk, who builds electric cars, is hardly a climate denier. Musk agrees, though, that it is unrealistic to end use of fossil fuels in the foreseeable future. He points out that fossil fuels are a finite resource that will run out eventually (perhaps in hundreds of years, Trump responds, noting that we have not found all of earth’s oil reserves yet). Michael Shellenberger is a climate scientist who teaches that the way out of global warming is innovation, not cessation of fossil fuels.

To end this article, look at an odd pair of YouTube videos by Sabine Hossenfelder, a cosmology gadfly who has suffered disillusionment in academia and has become somewhat of a YouTube sensation. She admits she is not a climate scientist. On 28 Feb 2024, she posted a video trashing the scientific community for its groupthink and unscientific biases, only to agree that they are experts on climate and must be correct! Go figure. Then on August 10, she said she has “lost trust in scientists” but ends by claiming that based on the scientists she has lost trust in, global warming is probably worse than she thought!

Hossenfelder speculates that climate scientists are too afraid of being called alarmists. From our experience reporting on climate and on political bias among scientists (e.g., 30 July 2022, 15 March 2022), that is hardly a concern. Government funding and acceptance by their peers is much more important to those trapped in academia’s groupthink labs where to get along, you have to go along.